Wow! What a difference a fortnight makes.
2023 was a pretty terrible year in our industry. Most brokers I know were massively down on what they are used to doing. I know of a few brokers who had to go and get second jobs and generally speaking it was a pretty hard year all round.
Towards the back end of 2023 ironically usually when it starts to slow down we noticed an increase in the enquiries coming through. Nothing major, but definitely increasing.
The start of 2024
Last week was a bit of a slow starter as my daughter was still off school so it was a case of trying to balance work and my 6 year old. However we had a handful of new enquiries and an application to go in. That is pretty decent for the first week back.
That has carried on over the weekend and into today. We have a few people we have spoken to and asked them to get documents together in order to review.
We have also had enquiries from people who are looking at a little later in the year – maybe spring or summer time. They wanted to test the water before looking to see if they would be eligible or if they could afford it. In some cases wanting to find out what they could afford.
Add those enquiries on to the people who we spoke to last year but were holding off for rates to drop, I think 2024 could be good year.
Mortgage Rates in 2024
Mortgage interest rates have been dropping, they are now below the bank of england base rate! The desire and ability for banks to lend is there.
I do not like predicting what will happen with rates as I am always wrong! But it looks like they may continue to drop this year, although the general consensus is only by maybe 0.5%. If that is the case we are probably not a million miles away from the lowest point… I know this sounds like sales spiel, but it probably is as good a time as any to be looking at a mortgage from a rates perspective.
House prices in 2024
I see a lot of debate on house prices. Arguments about supply and demand, house price reporting figures can be anywhere from 3-6 months behind or longer in some cases.
House prices seem to vary depending on the area. It is difficult to give any information that will be meaningful across the board.
House price reporting from the likes of Halifax/Natwest, Rightmove and the land registry will probably show house prices dropping until late into 2024. But those figures will be reporting house sales from now. As rates are probably as low as they will go or close to and confidence returns my personal view is that house prices have probably also bottomed out more or less. I know some people will disagree quite strongly with that statement though.
Economists
I remember going on a webinar around 12 months ago now and they basically said for house prices to stay where they were, wage rises would be needed or a drop in interest rates to around 4-4.5%. As both of those have happened, it should (in theory) mean house prices are about where they should be.
But as mentioned before, I really have no idea. I think homes need to be looked at as less of an investment. If its a place you will be happy for the price you pay then it is worth every penny regardless of what happens to house prices.