Since the last update a lot has happened!
England did not win the World Cup, Argentina still play dirty and Canada (my daughter had them in the school sweepstake) did better than expected but also did not win!
The ceasefire in Iran did not hold.
We have a new PM.
I have spent the last 2 weeks recovering from some unexpected surgery so I have absolutely no idea what to expect with rates. So lets get into it… (also I am fine and back to work as normal now).
What mortgage rates we are looking at?
As ever, we always look at the same 4 scenarios for some consistency. The 4 scenarios are:
- 2 year deal at 90% LTV with a £999(ish) fee.
- 5 year deal at 90% LTV with a £999(ish) fee.
- 2 year deal at 85% LTV with a £999(ish) fee for adverse*
- 5 year deal at 85% LTV with a £999(ish) fee for adverse*
*Adverse in these examples is someone with 5 defaults from 2 years ago. Enough to mean we cant go to the high street.
Some of these lenders would not have actually accepted the adverse, some only lend in certain areas and some have large fees. When we put the rates below, we go with the ones we know are likely to accept the majority of people. That means there may actually be lower rates available on the market.
What mortgage rates are available now?
I think it is becoming more clear that the war in Iran is having the biggest effect on the mortgage market. War starts, rates jump, it becomes fairly steady and does not spread, rates ease down, ceasefire comes and the continue to drop, ceasefire fails and rates go up again.
I suppose it is no surprise that a war which affects oil and imports as a whole is having an impact.
Mortgage rates in 2026
Last month I added this section and raised some potential talking points for what the rest for what the rest of the year holds. This was more with a view to explain that nobody knows because there are so many variables. But lets look at some of these points.
Iran is obviously a big part of that but what else?
- Andy Burnham for PM? – Generally not much. The markets seem to like him coming in and promised to not make any swinging changes to the previous budget. He has since made some announcements but nothing major so far.
- Will this ceasefire hold? – It seems not! I am sure there will be another but it seems it will not be as straight forward as we would hope.
- What will it look like after the ceasefire?
- Unemployment is a difficult conversation. – I read something this morning that said unemployment as a whole is holding steady albeit slightly worse. Small businesses are not looking to take on any new employees but as a whole businesses seem to just want to stay steady – no large cuts to the workforce and no big hires.
Summary
As I have mentioned for the last 2 months we seem to be doing a lot of variable rate products with no ERCs. A lot of people seem to be in a holding pattern at the moment unsure about rates and jobs etc so want to have something that gives them flexibility without sitting on the SVR and paying a fortune.
The world is still a busy place with lots going on and quite a bit of it not great! All things considered rates are relatively steady I think
Plenty to think about though.